The public's take on Sarah Palin remains deeply split along partisan and gender lines, according to the new Washington Post-ABC News poll, and among women, the gap between Democrats and Republicans is even wider.

Crosstabs on these questions below.

Q. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Sarah Palin?

              ---Favorable--   -Unfavorable--
              NET   Strongly   NET   Strongly
All           43       20      52       34

Democrat      21        9      77       57
Independent   45       18      47       32
Republican    76       42      20        6

Men           48       20      46       29
Women         39       20      57       39

Among women:

White         45       23      51       37
White/Suburb  50       26      46       33

Democrat      17        8      81       62
Independent   41       16      52       36
Republican    78       49      20        6

Q. If Palin runs for president in 2012, would you definitely vote for her, would you consider voting for her, or would you definitely not vote for her?

           Definitely    Would     Definitely
             would      consider   would not
All             9          37          53

Democrat        5          19          75
Independent     8          41          50
Republican     17          58          24

Men            11          38          50
Women           8          36          55

Among women:

White           9          39          52
White/Suburb    6          45          49

Democrat        4          16          79
Independent     6          44          50
Republican     16          61          23

Q. Regardless of whether or not you'd vote for her, do you think Palin is or is not qualified to serve as president?

              Is        Is not
           qualified   qualified
All           38          60

Democrat      22          76
Independent   37          59
Republican    61          36

Men           42          55
Women         33          64

Among women:

White         36          62
White/Suburb  38          60

Democrat      16          83
Independent   34          63
Republican    62          35

If Sarah Palin's book tour is an opening salvo in a run for the presidency in 2012, she faces a steep uphill climb: a majority of Americans in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll say they would "definitely not vote for her."

Most - 60 percent - in the new poll say the former Alaska governor is not qualified to serve as president, and her favorability rating remains stuck well below what it was when she first emerged on the national scene at last year's Republican convention.

But she continues to have strident supporters, particularly among the Republican base, lifting her political influence. Overall, 52 percent of those polled say they see Palin in unfavorable terms, but among Republicans, her positive rating soars to 76 percent. Nearly two-thirds of all white evangelical Protestants hold favorable views of her.

Put together, a majority of Americans have "strongly" positive or negative views of her, more than enough to propel her new memoir onto the bestseller lists.

However, if the goal is the White House, public opinion is now tilted against the idea: asked if they would consider voting for Palin in 2012, 53 percent say they would not. Just 9 percent say they would definitely vote for her; another 37 percent say they would consider it. The 53 percent who say they would definitely not vote for Palin now is nearly twice the percentage who said so of her 2008 running mate John McCain in the spring of 2006 (28 percent). Back then, 42 percent said they would definitely not support Hillary Clinton for the presidency.

Women tend to be more critical of Palin than are men, with female Democrats and independents more apt than their male counterparts to view her unfavorably, see her as not qualified for the presidency and say they would not support her candidacy.

More from this new poll later today and this week in the Washington Post.

From the new poll:

Q: Changing topics, do you have a favorable or 
unfavorable impression of Sarah Palin? 
Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

            ------ Favorable ------ ------ Unfavorable ----  No   
            NET Strongly  Somewhat  NET  Somewhat  Strongly opin.
11/15/09    43     20        23     52      18        34      5
7/18/09     40     20        20     53      19        34      7
10/23/08 LV 46     28        18     51      11        40      3 
9/29/08  RV 51     29        23     40      11        29      9
9/22/08  RV 52     31        21     38      10        27     11
9/7/08   RV 58     35        23     28      11        17     15 
9/4/08*  RV 52     34        18     37      14        23     11
* "the Republican nominee for vice president"

Q: If Palin runs for president in 2012, would you 
definitely vote for her, would you consider voting for her, 
or would you definitely not vote for her?

           Definitely    Would     Definitely     No 
             would      consider   would not    opinion
11/15/09        9          37          53          1

Compare to Hillary Clinton/2008:

           Definitely    Would     Definitely     No 
             would      consider   would not    opinion
5/15/06       19           38          42          1

Compare to John McCain/2008:

           Definitely    Would     Definitely     No 
             would      consider   would not    opinion
5/15/06        9           57          28          6


Q: Regardless of whether or not you'd vote for her, 
do you think Palin is or is not qualified to serve as president?

              Is        Is not       No
           qualified   qualified   opinion
11/15/09      38          60          3

With John Allen Muhammad, the mastermind of the 2002 D.C. sniper attacks, scheduled to be executed tomorrow, Virginia voters are broadly in favor of the death penalty for those convicted of murder, according to new data from a Washington Post poll.

Virginia voters favor the death penalty by a better than 2 to 1 margin, with 66 percent supportive of it, 31 percent opposed. And intensity on this issue is with the supporters: 45 percent "strongly" back capital punishment, 18 percent are that solidly opposed.

But in Northern Virginia - site of several shootings by Muhammad and Lee Boyd Malvo - a smaller majority of 56 percent backs the death penalty, compared with 71 percent in the rest of the state.

Support for capital punishment has dipped since it was a centerpiece issue in the 2005 gubernatorial campaign. Just before that vote, 72 percent of likely voters statewide said they favored the death penalty, 30 percent opposed it.

In the new poll, Republicans (82 percent support) and independents (69 percent) are more apt to favor the death penalty than are Democrats (45 percent). Support for capital punishment is also far higher among men than women (73 to 60 percent), with the gender gap sharpest among political independents (77 percent of independent men back the punishment compared with 57 percent of independent women).

There is a wide racial gap in support for the death penalty. Among whites, 72 percent support it while a majority of African Americans (56 percent) oppose it. And younger voters (59 percent among those under age 35) are less supportive than older voters (68 percent among those 35-64 and 67 percent among seniors).

If Muhammad is executed as scheduled tomorrow (a prospect which seems more likely given today's Supreme Court denial of a stay of execution), it will be the 10th execution during the tenure of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, whose personal opposition to the death penalty prompted harsh criticism from his Republican opponent Jerry W. Kilgore during his 2005 campaign.

Q. Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of murder?

              --- Favor ----   --- Oppose ---
              NET   Strongly   NET   Strongly
All           66       45      31       18 

Democrat      45       27      51       30 
Republican    82       62      17       11 
Independent   69       44      28       16 

Northern VA   56       33      40       22 
Rest of state 71       50      27       16 

White         72       49      26       15 
Black         41       27      56       34 

Men           73       52      26       15 
Women         60       37      37       22 

18-34         59       40      40       22 
35-64         68       46      29       18 
65+           67       46      31       16 

Both candidates in this year's Virginia gubernatorial campaign made claims of transformational regional appeal that would defy the state's typical partisan leanings - Republican Robert F. McDonnell touting his Northern Virginia roots and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds dubbing the rural west "Deeds Country." A look at the regional breaks in the latest Washington Post poll side-by-side with historical voting patterns shows McDonnell has done a better job translating his hometown ties into voter appeal.

Within Northern Virginia, McDonnell's showing at the moment nears that of George W. Bush in 2004 and 2000, and is about on par with Mark Earley's 2001 gubernatorial tally. But McDonnell has really gained ground in the outer suburbs. There, he has the support of 59 percent of likely voters in the Post poll, better than any top-of-the-ticket Republican this decade.

By contrast, comparing Deeds' regional standings to those of past Democrats, his showing could rate as one of the worst of the decade outside of Northern Virginia. Deeds trails by 22 points outside of the D.C. suburbs in the new poll, nearly four times as much as his own 2005 margin against McDonnell in the attorney general's race (46 to 52 percent, a 6-point deficit).

In the West, where Deeds holds a state senate seat, a 36 percent showing on Tuesday (his mark in the new poll) would fall below every top-of-the-ticket Democrat since 2000.

Deeds is the only recent Democrat to trail by double digits in the Southeastern part of the state; Kerry is the only Democrat since 2000 to lose there. And in the Richmond area, Deeds trails by 11. Not much worse than Jim Webb in 2006 (he lost by 9 points) or his own eight-point deficit in 2005, but far off the near even marks set by President Barack Obama, Sen. Mark Warner (in his 2001 gubernatorial bid) and current governor Tim Kaine.

Northern VA:
           Total   Dem   Rep   Dem-Rep
2009        30     56    43      +13
2008 Pres   28     61    38      +23
2008 Sen    28     68    31      +37
2006        28     59    40      +19
2005 Gov    26     60    38      +22
2005 AG     26     57    41      +16
2004        28     53    46       +7
2001        25     55    44      +11
2000        27     48    47       +1

Rest of state:
           Total   Dem   Rep   Dem-Rep
2009        70     38    60      -22
2008 Pres   72     49    49        0
2008 Sen    72     64    35      +29
2006        72     46    53       -7
2005 Gov    74     49    49        0
2005 AG     74     46    52       -6
2004        72     42    56      -14
2001        75     51    48       +3
2000        73     42    53      -11

Virginia Democrats hope President Obama's campaign stop today in Norfolk will boost Democratic gubernatorial candidate R. Creigh Deeds' standing and improve turnout in the final days of the campaign, but most in a new Washington Post poll say the president will not affect their vote next Tuesday.

Seven in 10 in the new poll say Obama is not a factor in their choice. And among those who say they'll take him into account, 14 percent say their vote will be to express support for Obama, 15 percent to indicate opposition to him.

The ongoing debate in Washington over health care reform also splits the electorate. A narrow majority (53 percent) opposes the legislation being developed by the Obama administration and Congress - including 44 percent who strongly oppose it - while 43 percent favor it. But Virginians are more evenly split on the necessity of reform: 48 percent say it's needed to control costs and expand coverage while about the same figure (49 percent) say it will do more harm than good.

Obama maintains majority approval in this poll, with 54 percent of likely voters and 57 percent of registered voters giving him the thumbs up on how he's handling his job. Both figures are little changed in Post Virginia polls this fall.

Obama's impact on the governor's race is not uniform, however, with divisions along regional and racial lines.

For Northern Virginians and those in the southeastern corner of the state, Obama is a bit more of a positive influence than a negative one (16 percent say their vote in part will be to support him vs. 10 percent opposition in NoVa, 18 to 13 percent in the southeast), while more in the rest of the state see the gubernatorial campaign as a chance to express opposition to Obama (22 percent to voice opposition vs. 11 percent support in the west and 18 to 12 percent in the Richmond area).

Among whites, those who say their vote is a reflection on Obama's time in office tilt decidedly negative (18 percent opposition, 8 percent support), while among blacks, nearly four in 10 say they'll vote to show their support for Obama (37 percent) and just 2 percent to express opposition.

Much of this racial division is driven by party ID, but even among Democrats, the positive tilt among whites (26 percent to express support, 1 percent opposition) is not as broad as that among non-white Democrats (40 percent support, less than one percent opposition). Among white independents, just 5 percent say their vote is to express support for Obama, 16 percent to express opposition.

Obama's appearance on Deeds' behalf could also affect the contest by boosting turnout. But the effort may be hampered by lingering differences of opinion on campaign strategy between the White House and Deeds' camp, a conflict played out publicly over the past week.

Still, the Deeds camp has made some headway among those who voted for Obama in 2008. In the Post poll earlier this month, only half of those who backed Obama last November said they were likely to cast a ballot in this year's contest. That's since risen to 57 percent, but still lags far behind the 72 percent of McCain voters who say they are definitely going to the polls next week.

And several groups which helped boost Obama's showing in the commonwealth - younger voters and African Americans in particular - make up a smaller share of the likely electorate this year than they did in 2008.

Among those registered voters age 18 to 29 who cast a ballot in 2008, just 39 percent say they are certain to vote this time around, compared with two-thirds among voters age 30 and up. Similarly, 53 percent of black voters who voted in 2008 say they plan to vote this time, compared with 66 percent of whites.

Regionally, Obama's voters make their strongest showing in Northern Virginia, where 71 percent say they are absolutely certain to cast a ballot, but elsewhere, just over half (52 percent) are definitely planning to vote. Compare that with figures among McCain voters (73 percent plan to vote in Northern Virginia, 72 percent in the rest of the state) and Obama's potential impact becomes more clear. In the southeast, which includes the site of Obama's visit today, just 49 percent of Obama's voters plan to cast a ballot Tuesday.

With one week to go before voters in Virginia head to the polls, Republican Robert F. McDonnell has a double-digit lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds according to a new Washington Post poll. Here are selected crosstabs from the new poll of 1,206 likely voters. Want others? Tell us in the comments section, and we'll do our best to provide. More results and question wording from the poll can be found here.

Q. If the election were being held today and the candidates were Creigh Deeds, the Democrat and Bob McDonnell, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Deeds   McDonnell
All likely voters      44%      55%

Men                    39       59
Women                  48       50

White                  34       64
African American       89       10

Age 18-34              53       46
Age 35-64              43       55
Age 65+                39       59

Democrats              94        6
Republicans             4       95
Independents           36       61

Liberal Democrats      95        5
Mod/cons. Democrats    93        6

Mod/lib. Republicans    7       91
Conservative Reps.      2       97

Democratic men         92        8
Democratic women       95        4
Republican men          4       95
Republican women        4       95
Independent men        33       64
Independent women      40       57

Military veterans      34       66

Northern Virginia      56       43
    Inner suburbs         60       39
Rest of state          38       60
    Southeast             43       54
    East/Richmond         37       62
    West/Shenandoah       36       63

Obama '08 voter        85       14
McCain '08 voter        4       95

Kaine '05 voter        76       22
Kilgore '05 voter       2       97

New federal rules on compensation at companies that accepted bailout money are likely to get a warm public reception: in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, more than seven in 10 Americans say they support such limits, most of them "strongly" so.

The new restrictions, as reported by the New York Times, would target companies receiving the most largess and force severe cuts in executive pay.

In the Post-ABC poll, support for federal limits on the salaries and other compensation of top executives at companies receiving emergency federal loans in the past year spans party lines. Nearly eight in 10 Democrats back the idea (79 percent support, 68 percent "strongly), as do seven in 10 independents (56 percent strongly) and more than six in 10 Republicans (62 percent support, 49 percent strongly).

Q. Would you support or oppose the federal government putting limits on the salaries and other compensation that can be paid to top executives at the companies that received emergency government loans in the past year?
Support NET: 71; Oppose NET: 27

SOURCE: Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Oct. 15-18 among a random national sample of 1,004 adults. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Amid the mixed public reviews of President Obama's handling of health care and the economy in the new Washington Post-ABC News poll stands one more even split, this one on how much the president has accomplished in his nine months in office.

About half (49 percent) say Obama has done "a great deal" or "a good amount" so far, half (50 percent) say "not much" or "little or nothing," with those on the far negative end of the scale (23 percent little to nothing) outweighing those on the most positive side (14 percent great deal).

Democrats are most apt to see a full resume, with 73 percent saying Obama's done a great deal or good amount. More than eight in 10 Republicans (84 percent), by contrast, say he hasn't gotten much done. Independents tilt toward the not so much side, 52 percent to 47 percent.

Asked in follow-up interviews what accomplishments stood out to them from Obama's first nine months in office, poll respondents who supported the president in the 2008 election cited the economy and taking the first steps on reforming health care, while those unhappy with the outcome see him leading in the wrong direction. More in their own words after the jump.

Q. Obama has been president for about nine months. Would you say he has accomplished a great deal during that time, a good amount, not very much or little or nothing?

SOURCE: Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Oct. 15-18 among a random national sample of 1,004 adults. The results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Continue reading this post »

Health care reform's most controversial element - the creation of a government-sponsored insurance plan to compete with private health insurers - centers on the eternal Washington conflict that defines party lines on so many issues: How much of a role should the government play?

In the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, views on the public option and on the level of government involvement in the proposed reforms are sharply divided along party lines. Here's a look at the crosstabs.

Q. Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

             -- Support ---   --- Oppose ---
             NET   Strongly   NET   Strongly
All          57       36      40       31

Democrat     77       55      19       12
Republican   26       10      69       57
Independent  57       34      42       33

Q. (IF OPPOSE/NO OPINION FOR GOVERNMENT PLAN) What if this government-sponsored plan was run by state governments and was available only to people who did not have a choice of affordable private insurance? In that case would you support or oppose this idea?

Combined initial support/state-run:

             ------- Support -------
             NET   At first   Now do   Oppose
All          76       57        19       23

Democrat     86       77         9       12
Republican   56       26        30       43
Independent  77       57        21       23

Q. Do you think the health care plan creates too much government involvement in the nation's health care system, not enough government involvement or about the right amount?

           Too much   Not enough   Right amount
All           42          21            34

Democrat      18          33            47
Republican    76           8            14
Independent   43          19            34

Americans overwhelmingly see Iran's nuclear program as geared toward the development of atomic weaponry, and more than eight in 10 support direct diplomatic talks to try to resolve the situation, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

As negotiators from the United States, France and Russia meet with Iran starting today in Vienna, public opinion in the U.S. is decidedly behind one possible outcome should the talks fail: 78 percent in the new poll support international economic sanctions against Iran to try to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.

There's less, though still sizable backing for military engagement, with 42 percent of Americans supporting the bombing of Iran's nuclear development sites and 33 percent advocating invading the country with U.S. ground forces (54 and 62 percent, respectively, oppose these actions).

Three in 10 support direct financial incentives such as aid money or more trade; two-thirds of Americans oppose these potential inducements.

Public reviews of how President Obama is handling the situation with Iran have changed little since the spring and summer: 52 percent of Americans now approve of how he is doing in this area, 39 percent disapprove. About seven in 10 Democrats approve of how the president is dealing with Iran, while a similar proportion of Republicans give him low marks here. Independents split 51 percent positive, 41 percent negative.

Partisanship is, however, less apparent in terms of possible policy options. Democrats are somewhat more apt to favor financial incentives to try to stave off the Iranian nuclear program, and Republicans are more likely to back military action, but the differences are minor.

Ideology proves a sharper divide here, with liberals staunchly opposed to military action and conservatives more apt to favor engagement. By contrast, conservatives sharply oppose financial incentives while liberals are about evenly split on the question. But one point of agreement emerges: broad majorities on both ends of the ideological spectrum back economic sanctions to discourage Iran's development of nuclear weapons.

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the situation with Iran?

             -- Approve ---   - Disapprove -
             NET   Strongly   NET   Strongly
All          52       24      39       27

Democrat     71       40      22       13
Republican   18        4      69       49
Independent  51       20      41       30

Liberal      78       45      17       11
Moderate     51       23      43       32
Conservative 40       12      48       33

Q. To try to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, would you support or oppose...

Direct diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran to try to resolve the situation

             Support   Oppose   No op.
All            82        18       1

Democrat       84        15       1
Republican     78        21       1
Independent    82        17       1

Liberal        86        14       0
Moderate       83        16       1
Conservative   79        20       *

Imposing international economic sanctions against Iran

             Support   Oppose   No op.
All            78        18       4

Democrat       78        19       3
Republican     85        14       1
Independent    76        19       5

Liberal        72        28       1
Moderate       77        19       4
Conservative   84        12       4

The United States bombing Iran's nuclear development sites

             Support   Oppose   No op.
All            42        54       4

Democrat       38        57       5
Republican     49        49       1
Independent    42        54       4

Liberal        24        74       3
Moderate       40        58       3
Conservative   56        38       6

Invading with U.S. forces to remove the Iranian government from power

             Support   Oppose   No op.
All            33        62       4

Democrat       32        63       5
Republican     40        57       3
Independent    30        65       5

Liberal        22        76       2
Moderate       30        65       5
Conservative   44        51       5

Offering Iran financial incentives such as aid money, or more trade, if it abandons any effort to develop nuclear weapons

             Support   Oppose   No op.
All            30        67       2

Democrat       38        57       5
Republican     28        69       3
Independent    25        75       0

Liberal        47        50       3
Moderate       31        68       1
Conservative   22        75       2