This is the first installment of a new occasional, collaborative feature between The Fix and Capitol Briefing. When interesting political news happens, we'll exchange a series of e-mails offering (we hope) trenchant analysis of "what it means" along with some informed, witty banter. Please let us know, via the comments sections of both blogs, what you think of the new feature.

Ben Pershing (of Capitol Briefing fame) started the conversation off by posing three questions about last night's results.

From Ben's post:

1) The "Wave" Angle. Look out, because we're about to be hit by, well, a wave of "wave" stories. We both know that reporters love groups of three, so three special election wins means the press will be writing today and tomorrow all about the possibility that Democrats are going to put dozens more seemingly safe Republican seats in play this fall and build up an old-school supermajority.

2) The Obama Angle. Republicans tried their best to tie Childers to Barack Obama. It didn't work. That's after they tried to tie Don Cazayoux to Obama in the Louisiana special election race. That didn't work either. Obama's campaign absolutely loves this.

3) The Tom Cole Angle. Tom Cole, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, has definitely had better months than May 2008. He's losing GOP seats, and spending a lot of his precious cash in the process. He's had his critics since he got this job last year, and now they'll be out for blood.

And, now for The Fix response:

Dear Ben:

To my mind, there's no better day than the day AFTER an election. There's numbers to sort, spin to sift through and conclusions to be drawn.

So, let's get to it.

The three questions rightly summarize the three possible narratives that could emerge from the vote in Mississippi last night, which, no matter what Republicans are saying today, was an unmitigated disaster for their party.

Given their previous losses in Illinois' 14th district and Louisiana's 6th district -- both seats that clearly favored their party -- Republicans should rightly be concerned about double-digit losses at the ballot box this fall.

I did a little bit of research on Mississippi's 1st district over the weekend to try to get an accurate read on just how Republican it is. The Cook Political Report -- a Fix alma mater -- produces something called the Partisan Voting Index, a system that compares all House districts to one another based on their vote for president. That comparison produces a PVI score; if a district, for example, carries a PVI of D+5, it means that the seat voted five points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Mississippi's 1st has a PVI of R+10; only seven (now eight) Democrats represent districts with a PVI score of R+10 or higher.

That's a long-winded way of saying that, if last night is any indication, Democrats may have a MUCH broader field of targets this fall than we previously thought.

Assuming the results in Mississippi are no fluke, here's a few GOP-held districts that may well be more competitive than previously imagined: Louisiana's 4th, Florida's 21st, Maryland's 1st, Missouri's 9th and New Mexico's 2nd.

Combine a wider target list with the large number of Republican incumbents already heading into retirement (26 and counting) as well as the massive cash edge the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has over its GOP counterpart and a double-digit seat gain for Democrats starts to seem like a real possibility.

It's too early to predict a wave but something is going on in the water out there.

Over to you, Ben.

Sincerely,
The Fix

Hillary Rodham Clinton's convincing victory over Barack Obama Tuesday in West Virginia's Democratic primary virtually ensures that she will remain in the race through the formal end of the nomination fight in June, despite her decidedly long odds of winning her party's nod.

Barack Obama smiles as he is introduced at a Tuesday town hall meeting at Thorngate Ltd., in Cape Girardeau, Mo. (AP Photo)

So, with at least three weeks left in the nomination fight, Obama must find ways to ensure nothing catastrophic happens in the primary race while also pivoting toward the general election fight to come against John McCain.

McCain has been his party's de facto nominee since mid-February and, since that time, has worked to distance himself from President Bush on several high profile issues -- most notably the handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and how to confront the problem of global warming.

With McCain already several months along in his general election strategy, the pressure for Obama to hit the ground running is heightened. Seeking to compile a list of specific steps Obama could take in the next few months to do just that, The Fix chatted with a wide cross-section of Democratic operatives with a vested interest in seeing Obama strengthen his hand as much as possible in the next few months. Most of the consultants were granted anonymity so that they could speak more freely.

The suggestions -- as well as The Fix's own thoughts -- fell generally into a few broad categories. Agree or disagree with the thoughts listed below? Have your own ideas for the Obama campaign? The comments section is open for business.

* A Middle East Pilgrimage: Obama continues to face questions about his commitment to the Jewish community -- questions he needs to resolve and resolve quickly. For months, Obama has been engaged in largely low profile outreach -- huddling with reporters for Jewish publications, meeting with small groups of Jewish leaders to reassure them and granting a recent interview to The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg to directly address questions about Israel and Hamas among other topics. But a more high profile gesture -- in the form of a trip to Israel as well as Egypt and Jordan -- could help dispense with concerns among Jewish leaders. One Democratic consultant suggested the symbolism of Obama at Yad Vashem would send a far more powerful message about his commitment to the Jewish community than a series of speeches on the issue. (UPDATE, 12:15 pm: The Obama campaign notes that their candidate has already been to Yad Vashem and even provided a picture of the event.)

* Blow the Caps?: Obama has wavered somewhat about whether or not he will participate in the public financing system in the general election. McCain is playing within the system and, if Obama opts out, is likely to use it as a way to show that the Illinois senator says one thing or does another. On the other hand, Obama has demonstrated during the primary season a nearly unlimited fundraising capacity and, if he chooses to take public dollars, he could be unnecessarily handcuffing himself. The news that Obama's finance chair urged its donors to focus on donating and raising hard money rather than funding soft money, 527 organizations seems to suggest Obama has already made his decision in favor of opting out of the system. Either way, the sooner Obama makes his choice the more time the various organizations seeking to help elect him can make their own financial plans.

* Revisit the Rust Belt: While Obama's losses in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia are not going to keep him from winning the Democratic nomination, his demonstrated struggles in those states to win rural, blue collar, white voters is of concern when it comes to the general election. To a person, the consultants and strategists I spoke with said that Obama should find a way to visit (and then visit again, and then again) states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. One intriguing suggestion: Launch a series of "Ask Barack" forums in which the candidate takes on all comers, seeking to answer questions about issues like religion and patriotism that could be major hurdles in a general election. Another suggestion: Share a meal with working class voters -- maybe via a visit to a workplace at lunchtime.

* Big Rhetoric, Big Ideas: No one who has followed the primaries with even a passing interest would question Obama's unique speech-giving ability. But many within the party worry that Obama is open to attacks that while he gives a good speech he has few specific ideas to back up that rhetoric. To counter that messaging, Obama should take on big issues -- affirmative action, Social Security, education -- with serious policy fixes that map out a path to addressing these long-standing problems. Is it a risk? Yes. But if 2008 is truly a change election, then the country is at a moment where a candidate can prosper by outlining policies to address the big issues of our times.

* Take Five: For the last 18 months (or so), Obama and his top campaign staff have been working nonstop to craft what will go down as one of the biggest upsets in the history of modern primary campaigns. Nick Baldick, who managed John Edwards's presidential campaign in 2004, advocates a break in the action. "Before the next stretch run, they should take a couple of weekends off," said Baldick. In that same vein, several strategists suggested some changes in Obama's inner circle -- not because of problems at the top but rather to ensure that the same level of energy and activity that led to Obama's all-but-certain primary victory is carried on in the general election. One Democratic operative cast such a staff shuffle as a "tune up" rather than an "overhaul."

* Pull Back the Curtain: Unlike congressional races, a vote for president is more relational than transactional. Voters aren't looking for a presidential candidate to deliver on any one specific promise. Rather, they are trying to gauge the measure of the men (or women) who are seeking the nation's highest office. Voters like to feel as though the person they are supporting in the presidential race understands them and their concerns. Obama, to date, has largely flown at 10,000 feet; it might be time to campaign at ground level for a while. Maybe a few more games of basketball with voters, trips to a NASCAR event (or two), a tour of state fairs over the summer. As one Democratic consultant put it: "Look like you're really enjoying being with people, eating corndogs etc. ... You've got a killer smile -- use it!"

Following Sen. Hillary Clinton's (N.Y.) convincing victory tonight in West Virginia she delivered a defiant speech in which she insisted that the outcome of the Democratic nomination fight remained very much in doubt.

"I am more determined than ever to carry on this campaign until everyone has had a chance to make their voices heard," said Clinton at her victory rally in Charleston, West Virginia. "I can win this nomination if you decide I should."

Clinton also reiterated her argument that she is the better candidate to win back the White House in the fall. "I am in this race because I believe I am the strongest candidate," she said, adding: "The White House is won in the swing states and I am winning the swing states."

Regardless of which candidate you support, does that argument move you? Why or why not?

House Democrats won a conservative northern Mississippi House seat in a special election tonight, a victory certain to send shock waves through the ranks of congressional GOPers.

The Associated Press called the race for Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers (D), shortly after 10 p.m. eastern time. With 81 percent of precincts reporting, Childers held a 51 to 49 percent edge over Southhaven Mayor Greg Davis (R).

The victory marked the third time this election cycle that Democrats have won a Republican-held seat in a special election and seemed to suggest that the national political atmosphere could significantly broaden the House playing field in the fall.

Mississippi's 1st district had long been a conservative stronghold. President George W. Bush won it with 59 percent of the vote in 2000 and 62 percent in 2004. Roger Wicker (R), whose appointment to the Senate seat vacated by Trent Lott (R) created the vacancy in the House, had held the district easily since 1994 -- never winning reelection with less than 63 percent of the vote.

But, the confluence of a treacherous national politicial environment for Republicans, a divisive GOP primary and the emergence of Childers, a social conservative from the more rural reaches of the districts, as the Democratic candidate combined to make the race an unlikely pickup opportunity.

The fallout from this trio of losses is sure to be significant for House Republicans. We'll be keeping a close eye on it over the next few days and will have more to say on this race in particular in tomorrow's winners and losers column. In the meantime, make sure to check out Capitol Briefing for more on the contest.

UPDATE, 7:35 pm: Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has won a convincing victory over Sen. Barack Obama in West Virginia, a win blunted somewhat by the steady stream of superdelegates coming out in favors of the Illinois Senator over the last week.

ORIGINAL POST

The Fix has been charged with writing the lead news story for tonight's vote in West Virginia between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.).

The story, which will be updated throughout the night, suggests that the conventional wisdom about West Virginia -- that Clinton will win handily but that Obama remains the clear frontrunner for the nomination -- is fundamentally correct.

The story is excepted below. And remember to check The Fix later tonight for updates not only about the outcome in West Virginia but also for the results in the special election in Mississippi's 1st district -- a race that could tell us much about the state of play for congressional Democrats heading into the fall election.

But, that's all later. For now, the excerpt:

Clinton Poised for Win in West Virginia

By Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) appeared to be cruising to a substantial victory in today's West Virginia presidential primary, even as Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) continues to solidify his status as the near-certain Democratic nominee.

Heavily rural West Virginia has long been considered a reliable state for the Clinton campaign. And despite last week's drubbing in North Carolina and narrow victory in Indiana, polling suggests the New York Senator will win West Virginia's Democratic primary easily.

A Suffolk University poll released earlier this week put Clinton's lead over Obama at a whopping 36 points, and the Illinois senator's campaign has acknowledged they will likely lose the Mountain State by a wide margin.

In a memo released late this afternoon, the Obama campaign concedes not just West Virginia but also Kentucky, which votes a week from today, to Clinton. "But with 49 contests behind us and only six to go -- including several states where we expect to do well -- Barack Obama leads in pledged delegates, contest won, and superdelegates," notes the memo.

Seeking to further downplay the importance of the state in his electoral calculus, Obama spent the day in southeastern Missouri -- a key general election battleground. He is set to make stops in Michigan and Florida -- both states likely to be hotly contested in the fall -- over the next week.

Since last Tuesday's primaries, Obama has gained 27 superdelegates -- including Roy Romer, the former Democratic National Committee chairman and former Colorado governor, who announced his support this morning. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, Rep. Joe Donnelly of Indiana and the District of Columbia Democratic party chair Anita Bonds also endorsed the Illinois senator today.

"The math is controlling," said Romer. "This race, I believe, is over."

Not so, argue Clinton allies, who note that Obama has yet to formally claim all 2,025 delegates he needs to become his party's standard-bearer and that his continued struggles for support in Rust Belt States (Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia) could hurt Democrats' chances of winning the White House in the fall.

"With a record turnout expected in today's primary, West Virginia Democrats will make clear who they believe is the strongest candidate to take on Sen. McCain in the fall," states a memo released by Clinton's campaign this afternoon. The memo also says that no Democrat in the last 90 years has won the White House without carrying West Virginia.

"I think Democrats across the country tomorrow will be asking themselves why Senator Obama -- with all of his money, with all of the great press, with voters being told he was the inevitable nominee -- why did Senator Obama lose West Virginia by 15 points or so?" Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson asked on NBC's "Today" show.

The Democratic presidential nomination fight continues on without end, but attention is beginning to shift to the prospects of a general election battle between Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and John McCain (Ariz.).

A new poll conducted by the Washington Post and ABC provides us with a benchmark of where the likely Obama-McCain general election matchup stands -- and gives us scads of data to sort through in an attempt to understand the strengths and weaknesses of these two candidates.

In the head-to-head matchup, Obama leads McCain, 51 percent to 44 percent, a margin roughly similar to the 49 percent to 44 percent edge he held in the Post/ABC survey in April. Obama held a wider 52 percent to 40 percent lead in a March Post/ABC poll.

The Fix, as always, seeks to go beyond the basics and bring Fixistas the essential information you can't get anywhere else. Thanks to Washington Post polling director -- and all around good guy -- Jon Cohen, we have a wellspring of numbers to slice and dice as we see fit.

At first glance, it's clear that while this election may be historic on some levels, some of the traditional divides between the parties remain.

Take the gender gap. Obama and McCain are statistically tied among men (Obama 48 percent, McCain 47 percent), but the Illinois senator has a 14-point edge among women. That margin is due in large part to Obama's strength among black women, who favor him over McCain by a whopping 90 points. (That is not a typo.) McCain actually leads among white women, 50 percent to 43 percent, a reflection, perhaps of some lingering ill will among supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).

Similarly, Obama expectedly does better among lower income voters while the two candidates run even among the more affluent. Obama holds a wide 16-point lead among those with a household income of $50,000 or less while McCain is ahead of Obama, 49 percent to 48 percent, among those making $50,000 or more.

But, there is also data in the guts of the poll that suggests another Democratic year is brewing, with Obama positioned to take full advantage.

A look at the presidential vote by region suggests a shift in political inclination is at work. Not surprisingly, Obama holds his largest lead over McCain (18 points) in the Northeast -- an area that has become increasingly dominated by Democrats in recent elections.

But, Obama also holds a lead in the traditional battleground area of the Midwest -- where Obama takes 54 percent to McCain's 41 percent -- and in the Republican-leaning territory of the West where Obama holds a double-digit lead at the moment. And, even in the South, where Republicans have dominated at the federal level for much of the past four decades, Obama is competitive; McCain takes 49 percent to 45 percent for the Illinois senator.

While McCain trails by double digits in three of the four regions of the country, he actually far over performs his own party's showing in the Post poll.

Asked which party they trusted to "do a better job of coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years," voters across the country opted for Democrats by wide margins.

In the Northeast, Democrats outpaced Republicans by 29 points while the margin was 26 points in the Midwest. The news wasn't much better for Republicans in the West (Democrats +18) or the South (Democrats +15).

Those two sets of numbers provide clear evidence of two things: the Republican brand is badly damaged and McCain may be the GOP's best (and only) chance to redefine it and win in November.

McCain runs far stronger than the generic Republican in not only the various geographic regions of the country but across nearly every demographic group. That includes white Catholics (McCain trails Obama by just two while Republicans lag behind Democrats by 16 points), non-college voters (McCain down six, Republicans down 21) and voters 55 or older (McCain up one point, Republicans down 19).

While those problems bode poorly for downballot candidates -- and could well explain the party's losses in House special election in Illinois and Louisiana and its potential defeat tonight in Mississippi's 1st district -- it provides some hope that McCain is seen as a different kind of Republican by many voters and could, in theory, reinvent the GOP brand between now and November.

While that possibility exists for McCain, other data in the poll suggests there are considerable hurdles to remaking the party brand.

Most importantly, self-identified independent and moderate voters continue to act like Democrats -- a trend that led to that party retaking majorities in Congress in 2006.

Obama holds a nine-point lead among independent voters -- 51 percent to 42 percent -- and a wider 19-point bulge among moderates.

Both candidates demonstrate some cross-party appeal. Obama wins 15 percent of self identified Republicans (Sen. John Kerry took just six percent of those voters in 2004) while McCain wins 13 percent of self-identified Democrats. Those numbers could well change, however, as the election engages and partisan tendencies harden.

All in all, the Obama forces have to be pleased with the poll results as they show the Illinois senator is not only running strong among traditional Democratic groups but also doing better among typical swing groups than McCain.

Still, when matched against the generic numbers, there is reason for concern among Democrats as McCain is clearly over-performing his party in any number of key demographic groups -- a showing that suggests he has the potential to make the November election far closer than the political climate suggests it should be.

Down about the fact that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) remains in the Democratic presidential race despite Sen. Barack Obama's status as the presumptive nominee? Look on the bright side: the longer Clinton stays in the race, the more official Fix t-shirts we can give away!

Today's West Virginia Democratic primary is the latest chance for Fixistas to claim the hottest shirt in the business.

Polling seems to suggest that West Virginia will be a walk-over for Clinton; a new Suffolk University survey put Clinton ahead of Obama, 60 percent to 24 percent.

Given Clinton's lead, the trick in this primary prediction contest won't be getting the order of finish right but rather nailing the percentage of the vote for the two candidates.

Polls close in West Virginia at 7:30 p.m. eastern time, so no prediction posted after that time will be considered in the contest for the Fix t-shirt. Also, all predictions must be posted in the comments section below to be counted. Predictions emailed to The Fix are not eligible for the shirt.

Need a little entertainment while you are mulling your picks? Here are the two best things about West Virginia to the Fix's -- admittedly warped -- mind.

First, Kevin Pittsnogle.

Second, John Denver.

Even as pundits everywhere declare the race for the Democratic presidential nomination effectively over, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) -- and her husband, former President Bill Clinton -- continue to soldier on with packed travel schedules that belie no sign of the daunting odds against them.

Answering the question of "why" has been the task of any number of political observers -- both those familiar with the former First Couple and those with even the loosest of affiliations.

As we wrote last week, endurance has been the defining word of the Clinton's political life, persevering against long odds to eventually triumph. The list of back-from-the-dead moments for the Clinton is extensive: Bill's come-from-behind in the 1992 Democratic primaries, his battle against calls for him to resign his office in 1998, Hillary Clinton's come-from-behind win in New Hampshire in January and a similar Lazarus-like performance in Ohio and Texas in March.

Michael Crowley, one of the most talented reporters and writers covering this campaign, has taken The Fix endurance argument a step further -- offering a compelling psychological profile of what the Clintons learned from the impeachment imbroglio and how it has come to impact their thinking in the current contest.

"Impeachment taught them that the specter of defeat could endear them to the public," writes Crowley. "It's no coincidence that, before several major primaries, Bill Clinton emphasized that Hillary's survival was on the line, or that Hillary's campaign has advertised rather than ignored efforts by pundits and party leaders to force her from the race."

The success of the Clinton's attempts to paint themselves as victims of a vicious and power hungry Republican party during impeachment have led them to view the current contest with Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) as a Manichean battle between good and evil, argues Crowley.

"The vileness of the Clintons' past enemies seems to have convinced them that their enemies always are, by definition, in the wrong," says Crowley. "And that Obama's candidacy is almost like another illegitimate attempt to steal a White House that, in some sense, belongs to them."

Understanding the Clintons is a life's work -- just ask Fix mentor John F. Harris.

But, in the near term, any number of reporters and analysts will take a crack at deciphering their motivations in these final week of the nomination fight. Crowley sets a high bar for those seeking to understand what happened and why.

Although Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) continues to insist that his race against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is not yet over, his travel schedule over the next two weeks suggests that his campaign is already in the process of pivoting toward the general election.

Obama will spend tomorrow in Cape Girardeau, Missouri -- a key outpost in the more rural, Republican southeastern corner of the state -- before making two stops in Michigan on Wednesday. This coming weekend he will return to the primary trail with stops in South Dakota, which votes on June 3, and Oregon, which will hold its primary on May 20. (Obama, who is in West Virginia today, will not return before that state's primary tomorrow -- perhaps a wise move given that new poll shows him trailing Clinton by 36 points.)

His schedule the following week includes a three day swing through Florida with stops scheduled in Tampa, Orlando, Palm Beach County and Miami -- a series of visits that will include not just fundraising but also campaign events, according to his staff.

"Our schedule reflects the fact that we are still fighting for votes and delegates in the remaining contests but also that we are going to places that are going to be competitive in the fall," said Obama spokesman Bill Burton.

Stops in Missouri, Michigan and Florida even as the nomination fight continues are sure signs that Obama is already moving beyond the race with Clinton and beginning to try to set the playing field for his general election fight against Sen. John McCain.

Two of the three states made the most recent Fix Line ranking those most likely to reverse their result from the 2004 presidential election -- Michigan came in at #8 while Florida was #10. With Obama emerging as the presumptive nominee, Missouri could make its way on to the next Line given Obama's strong showing in the state during the primary and his status as a next door neighbor.

As the Post's Peter Slevin noted, Obama may well have work to do in Michigan and Florida to repair damage down by a primary process that sought to marginalize the two states. Both Michigan and Florida were punished by the Democratic National Committee for moving their primaries too far forward in the nomination fight. As a result, the state's delegates remain in limbo and some -- especially the party activists -- are unhappy about the treatment they have received from the national party.

What's clear is that Obama's campaign is now spending far more time positioning their candidate for the general election than worrying about whether or not he will be the nominee. That shift in focus is born of necessity; McCain secured his party's nod in mid-February and since then has been touring the country in an attempt to dictate the states that will comprise the playing field in the fall. Obama wants to make sure he levels that playing field and perhaps even expands the map beyond what most party strategists believe will be the 12 (or so) competitive states.

A look at the travel schedules of the two likely nominees suggest a few states where each will seek to expand the map. For McCain, that's Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire. For Obama, it's Florida, Ohio, Colorado and Missouri.

Which candidate fights this fall on his opponent's home turf will be a telling sign of where the election is headed. Is McCain forced to spend time and money defending an expensive state like Florida? Can Obama solve his potential problems in Pennsylvania between now and November? The answers to those questions may well signal the ultimate election result.

It's been quite some time since the Democratic presidential race took a back seat to the battle for control of Congress but with Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) the presumptive nominee the focus of the political world will shift south -- to a special House election in Mississippi tomorrow.

The 1st District, which takes in much of northern Mississippi shouldn't be competitive. President Bush carried the district with 62 percent of the vote in 2004 and Rep. Roger Wicker (R) held the seat easily since winning it in 1994. According to the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI), an attempt to rate the partisanship of each district in comparison to all others, Missippi's 1st has a score of R+10. Democrats represent only 7 seats with a PVI that high.

So, when Wicker was selected by Gov. Haley Barbour (R) earlier this year to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Sen. Trent Lott (R), there was little attention paid to the special election triggered by Wicker's departure.

But, the confluence of a brutal national environment for Republicans, a considerable black population in the district (26 percent according to the 2000 Census) and the emergence of a conservative Democrat have turned the race into a barn burner.

Late last month in the open primary for the seat, Democrat Travis Childers very nearly won the race outright -- coming within a few hundred votes of the 50 percent he needed to avoid a runoff against Southhaven Mayor Greg Davis (R), who placed second.

The intervening three weeks have featured massive spending by both national parties as well as a variety of third party groups. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has sunk nearly $2 million into the contest, while the National Republican Congressional Committee has invested $1.3 million -- roughly 18 percent of the total cash on hand for the organization at the end of March. (The DCCC had $44 million on hand at that time.)

Freedom's Watch, a group founded by a number of prominent conservatives, has also been spending freely on ads in the district that attack Childers as a liberal on taxes among other things. (So far this month, Freedom's Watch has dropped nearly $300,000 on ads, according to a report filed with the Federal Election Commission.)

Despite the onslaught of spending, knowledgeable sources on both sides of the aisle insist little has changed in the last 21 days. Childers is believed to have a mid single digit lead over Davis with Republican strategists turning pessimistic about their chances in the last 48 hours or so.

While there are any number of local factors at work in this race (Davis comes from the Memphis suburbs, and, therefore is not well liked by many residents in the district's rural areas, neither Davis nor Childers will have their party identification after their names on the ballot, etc.), make no mistake: a loss here would send seismic shock waves through an already rattled group of congressional Republicans.

It would mark the third Republican seat lost in a special election this cycle; the first was the Illinois seat vacated by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (Ill.), the second came just nine days ago when state Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) defeated former state Rep. Woody Jenkins (R).

Three special election losses in quick succession will force House Republicans to come face to face with the stark reality likely to face them at the ballot box in the fall. A loss tomorrow in Mississippi could well push a few wavering GOP incumbents to opt for retirement rather than run the risk of losing in the fall. Republicans have already seen 26 incumbents announce their retirements, a number coming in tough districts for the party to hold. A few more no-go decisions will further broaden the playing field on which Democrats will seek to build their gains in 2006.

The other thing to keep an eye on if Republicans come up short in Mississippi is the fate of NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.). Cole and House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) have had a testy relationship this cycle and the Ohio Republican could well be looking for a reason to replace Cole. It's unfair to blame Cole for the panoply of problems that have beset his party (and its candidates) this cycle but if the team is struggling, sometimes the manager takes the fall.

Much rides on the result in Mississippi tomorrow.