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The Hamlet Effect
Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal's (D) decision today not to run for governor got me thinking about politicians that are forever mentioned for the "next big race" but never wind up making it.
I call this the "Hamlet effect," a form of indecision that strikes certain politicians who would love to serve as senator, governor or even president but always seem to find a reason why the timing isn't right to make a race. "To be or not to be" indeed.
Blumenthal is a perfect example of a political Hamlet. After roughly a year of playing the "wait and see" game, he bowed out of a run for governor today and will instead run for a fifth term as the state's top cop. This repeats a familiar cycle for Blumenthal, who passed on gubernatorial bids in 1994 and 1998. In 2000, he was mentioned as the most likely Democratic candidate for the Senate if Sen. Joseph Lieberman decided not to seek reelection while he simultaneously ran for vice president on Al Gore's ticket. Lieberman ran for both offices, though, and Blumenthal saw another window close.
Roll Call's Jennifer Yachnin wrote a great piece on the "Man with the Golden Resume" earlier this year. The site is subscriber-only, but if you have a password it's definitely worth reading.
Blumenthal is far from the only politician suffering from the Hamlet effect. Off the top of my head I came up with former New Jersey governor Tom Kean (R), former Kansas congressman Dan Glickman (D), former Indiana congressman Tim Roemer (D), former Illinois governor Jim Edgar (R) and -- until recently -- Ohio Rep. Sherrod Brown (D). Brown threw off that image last week when he jumped into the Democratic primary race to challenge Sen. Mike DeWine (R).
I am sure there are others I'm missing. Send me your own suggestions here or post a comment.
UPDATE: Several readers have mentioned former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo (D) as the ultimate example of the Hamlet effect. For The Fix's younger readers, Cuomo was widely seen as a rising star within the Democratic Party in the 1980s and was expected to make a presidential run in 1988. He passed, and then did the same four years later after much hemming and hawing.
So well-known was Cuomo's penchant for vacillation that he became the butt of jokes by late night comics (longtime "Tonight Show" show Johnny Carson once said of Cuomo's indecisiveness: "Mario Cuomo was in New York City yesterday and a mugger came up to him and said, 'Your money or your life!' and Mario said, 'Why do I have to make up my mind right now?'"). Cuomo's political timidity eventually came back to bite him as he was ousted in 1994 by a little known state senator named George Pataki (R) -- another New Yorker often mentioned in 2008 presidential speculation.
A few other Hamlet suggestions from loyal readers: Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) and former California Rep. Chris Cox (R). Keep 'em coming!
By Chris Cillizza |
October 11, 2005; 2:00 PM ET
| Category:
Governors
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Next: The Hamlet Effect (Cont.)
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Posted by: Dublin Flats | March 22, 2006 9:55 AM
I hope he runs sometime for Gov.
Time to start the Chris Dodd draft movement.
Posted by: Daniel | October 11, 2005 9:04 PM
Sometimes they're just biding their time, or they genuinely don't have the psychotic fire in the belly that so many politicians have. In Nevada there was a candidate with a silver resume-- Clark County (Las Vegas) superintendent of schools, public utility president, bank president, university president. His name is Kenny Guinn and every two years through the '70s, '80s, and most of the '90s his name was mentioned for statewide office (usually U.S. senator and governor) and he always declined. Finally in 1998 he ran for governor, was easily elected and easily reelected. Having served as governor, he declined a U.S. senate race and will go back to private life.
Posted by: Dennis Myers | October 11, 2005 8:16 PM
The first comment about Carson's borrowing of Jack Benny's famous routine was right on point, but left out the punch line.
Mugger to Benny: Your money or your life!
Benny: Looking at the audience and looking and looking...
Mugger: Didn't you hear me? Your money or your life!
Benny to Mugger: I am thinking...
This of course was playing off Benny's famous on-stage persona of being a tight-wad. This was a running gag on his program and the source of much of its humor... Of course in reality Benny was one of the most generous of men.
Posted by: errol | October 11, 2005 7:20 PM
Missouri AG Jay Nixon actually ran for US Senate a couple of times (lost to Kit Bond in 1998) and is planning a bid for governor in 2008 against Matt Blunt.
Posted by: STLInsider | October 11, 2005 5:46 PM
Jack Benny didn't remain entirely mute. I have a tape of the routine. After Benny stood silent for a few moments, the robber again demanded, "Your money or your life!" Benny replied, "I'm thinking, I'm thinking!"
Posted by: Dennis Myers | October 11, 2005 5:32 PM
The gist of the posting seems to be that failing to seek a "higher" office is an inherent character flaw. How tastelessly inside-the-beltway. Ever consider that some people simply like the job that they have, or don't much care for the parties vicious hack machines or the media's endless search for youthful indiscretions?
In any event, I've always admired competent, local politicians who seek to serve their constituents rather than their egos. It's unfortunate that this virtue is interpreted as vacillation by pundits and partisans.
Posted by: Jason Polackbow | October 11, 2005 5:13 PM
Blumenthal's fellow Connecticut native, Chris Dodd, might be added to the list. Dodd toyed with running for President in 2000 and 2004 but ultimately declined. He also was public about noodling the race for Connecticut Governor in 2006. Each time, of course, it was "not to be."
Posted by: Big Al | October 11, 2005 4:58 PM
Dick Blumenthal is afraid of getting into a race he may not win. He is an expert at political self-preservation, never taking any chances. In many ways, that is why being AG suits him perfectly; he gets to be the good guy all the time. He always can portray himself as the champion of the people and take little risks. If he really wanted to be the champion of the people, he'd run for governor and clean up Connecticut's dirty house.
Posted by: John | October 11, 2005 4:01 PM
Johnny Carson stole one of Jack Benny's most famous routines. A mugger would demand of Benny "Your money or your life". Benny would remain mute for a long period of time, obviously torn by indecision as to the correct answer.
Carson's thievery doesn't mean that a commentator in 2005 should fail to credit the author of the witticism.
The error is apparent in:
Carson once said of Cuomo's indecisiveness: "Mario Cuomo was in New York City yesterday and a mugger came up to him and said, 'Your money or your life!' and Mario said, 'Why do I have to make up my mind right now?'".
Posted by: Evan Wilner | October 11, 2005 4:00 PM
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